Avg Wholesale Price
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EUR/MWh
Daily Peak-Trough Spread
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EUR/MWh
Negative Price Hours / Year
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hours
BESS Arbitrage Revenue
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EUR/MW/yr (k)
BESS Payback Period
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years
24-Hour Price Curve (shape from actual SEM day-ahead data, multi-season 2024-25)
BESS Revenue Breakdown (EUR/MW/yr)
Sensitivity Tornado (BESS Revenue, +/-20%)
Price Duration Curve (8,760 Hours)
Core Price Formula (gas marginal, ~55% of periods):
SEM_price = 2.0 * Gas_TTF + 0.407 * CO2_ETS + 2.5 + wind_effect + demand_effect
Wind Effect: Each 1 GW of wind output suppresses price by ~10 EUR/MWh. Average capacity factor: 30%. Wind output = installed capacity * 0.30.
Solar Effect: Average capacity factor ~11% (annual). Creates midday suppression. At 5+ GW installed, midday suppression of 20-40 EUR/MWh. Hourly solar profile modelled with a bell curve peaking at 13:00.
Demand Effect: Each GW above 4 GW baseload adds ~8 EUR/MWh. Daily demand profile uses hour indices.
Hourly Price Indices (from actual SEM day-ahead data, 4 seasons Apr/Jul/Oct 2024 + Jan 2025, mean = 1.00):
Weekday (~91 days): [0.70, 0.69, 0.68, 0.67, 0.69, 0.80, 0.98, 1.19, 1.23, 1.19, 1.12, 1.07, 1.01, 0.98, 1.00, 1.09, 1.28, 1.42, 1.38, 1.23, 1.11, 0.93, 0.81, 0.76]
Weekend (~33 days): [0.97, 0.95, 0.90, 0.88, 0.83, 0.85, 0.94, 1.01, 1.06, 1.06, 1.01, 0.98, 0.93, 0.88, 0.87, 0.97, 1.16, 1.31, 1.28, 1.19, 1.15, 1.02, 0.93, 0.90]
Weekend peak/trough ratio: 1.57x vs weekday 2.12x. Weekend mean ~18% lower than weekday. Source: Energy-Charts API / ENTSO-E (2,976 hourly observations).
BESS Spread Compression: Each additional GW of BESS above 1 GW compresses daily spread by ~10%. Derived from GB/ERCOT/CAISO cross-market data.
Interconnector Effect: Each 500 MW above baseline (1500 MW) compresses spreads by ~7.5%. More interconnection leads to price convergence with GB.
Data Center Effect: Each 1pp above 22% baseline raises baseload by ~0.06 GW (flat profile), compresses peak-trough ratio by ~0.5%.
Negative Price Hours: Modelled as a function of RES-E penetration. At 40% RES-E: ~40 hrs/yr; at 70%: ~350 hrs/yr; at 80%: ~750 hrs/yr. Interpolated exponentially.
BESS Arbitrage Revenue:
daily_spread * capture_rate(0.60) * cycles(1.75) * 365 * (duration/4) * RTE(0.86)
Duration assumed 2 hours for revenue scaling (4hr = reference).
CRM Capacity Payments: EUR 149,960/MW/yr * de-rating factor (4hr: 40%) = ~EUR 60,000/MW/yr.
DS3/DASSA System Services: Baseline ~EUR 65,000/MW/yr, declining by ~8% per GW of BESS above 1 GW as ancillary market saturates.
Balancing Market Premium: Estimated at 15% of arbitrage revenue, reflecting optionality value for fast-response BESS.
BESS CAPEX Assumption: EUR 350,000/MW (4hr LFP, 2025 estimate) declining ~5% per year implied in payback.
Price Duration Curve: 8,760 hourly prices simulated by applying seasonal wind/solar variation, random weather noise (normal distribution), and hourly demand profiles to the core formula. Sorted descending.
Sources: EirGrid Generation Capacity Statement 2024-2033; ISEA SEM Market Reports; SEMC I-SEM publications; EU ETS pricing data; CRU DS3 System Services decisions; ENTSO-E TYNDP 2024.