Israel-Palestine Conflict

The Israeli military campaign in Gaza unfolded across ten distinct phases between October 2023 and March 2026, evolving from aerial bombardment to a full ground invasion, temporary ceasefires, resumed fighting, and an ongoing fragile peace plan. The scale of destruction is without modern precedent in the region: 81% of all structures damaged, 92% of housing stock destroyed or damaged, and an economy that contracted by 83% in 2024.

Phase 1: Aerial Campaign (7–26 October 2023)

Following the October 7 attack, Israel declared war and launched intensive aerial bombardment. On 13 October, the IDF ordered the evacuation of the entire northern Gaza Strip within 24 hours, affecting over 1 million residents. A “complete siege” cut electricity, fuel, and water.

Phase 2: Northern Gaza Ground Invasion (27 October – November 2023)

Over 100,000 IDF soldiers entered northern Gaza on 27 October. Operations focused on Gaza City, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia refugee camp. Al-Shifa Hospital, Gaza's largest, became a focal point after Israel alleged Hamas maintained a command centre beneath it.

Phase 3: Temporary Truce (November 2023)

A seven-day humanitarian pause began on 24 November. Hamas released 105 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners. Fighting resumed 1 December.

Phase 4: Khan Younis Siege (December 2023 – April 2024)

The battle of Khan Younis became the longest ground engagement of the war, lasting approximately four months. The IDF eventually withdrew in April 2024, leaving widespread destruction. Two further incursions followed in July and August 2024.

Phase 5: Rafah Operation (May – August 2024)

On 6 May, the IDF entered Rafah, seizing the border crossing with Egypt and the Philadelphi Corridor. Approximately 1 million people fled a city that had been sheltering most of Gaza's displaced. The ICJ ordered Israel to “immediately halt” the operation; Israel continued. Two months in, Rafah was described as a “dust-covered ghost town.”

Phase 6: The “Generals’ Plan” (October 2024 onwards)

In October 2024, the IDF adopted a modified version of retired General Giora Eiland's plan: evacuate northern Gaza of all civilians, designate remaining people as military operatives, and blockade the area. The entire northern Gaza — Jabalia, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia — was declared a combat zone. UN experts described this as potentially amounting to forcible transfer and ethnic cleansing.

Phase 7: January 2025 Ceasefire

A three-stage ceasefire brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the US took effect 19 January 2025. During 42 days, 33 Israeli hostages and 5 Thai hostages were released; approximately 2,000 Palestinian prisoners freed.

Phase 8: Ceasefire Collapse (March – October 2025)

Phase 1 expired without a Phase 2 agreement. Israel ceased humanitarian aid on 2 March. On 18 March 2025, Israel resumed military operations “in full force.” After 11 weeks of complete aid blockade, limited aid was allowed in May. Famine was officially declared in August 2025.

Phase 9: October 2025 Ceasefire and Peace Plan

A new ceasefire under Trump's 20-point plan took effect 10 October 2025. All 20 surviving hostages released; remains of 25 deceased returned. 2,000 Palestinian prisoners freed. However, Israel reportedly violated the ceasefire at least 1,620 times between October 2025 and February 2026. Only 43% of pledged aid trucks entered Gaza.

Current Status (March 2026)

Phase 2 of the peace plan was announced 14 January 2026. The Board of Peace met in February with $7 billion in reconstruction pledges. However, 631 Palestinians have been killed since the October 2025 ceasefire. Reconstruction has not meaningfully begun. The February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent regional escalation have put peace plan activities largely on hold.

US Policy: Biden Administration

The Biden administration maintained strong support for Israel while facing mounting pressure over the humanitarian toll. The US continued its $3.8 billion annual military aid. In May 2024, Biden paused a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs over Rafah concerns — the administration's only significant weapons restriction. In February 2024, Biden signed an executive order enabling sanctions on violent Israeli settlers. He brokered the January 2025 ceasefire deal.

US Policy: Trump Administration

Trump reversed Biden-era policies immediately: revoking settler sanctions, releasing the paused bomb shipment. In February 2025, he proposed a US “takeover” of Gaza, widely condemned internationally. In September 2025, he announced a 20-point peace plan with Netanyahu, leading to the October 2025 ceasefire. A “Board of Peace” of 26 countries was established. Phase 2 struggles — as of early 2026, 600+ Palestinians killed despite the ceasefire, and the US-Israeli war on Iran has stalled peace efforts.

UN Security Council

The US vetoed three ceasefire resolutions (December 2023, February 2024, November 2024). Two resolutions passed: Resolution 2728 (March 2024, US abstaining) demanding a ceasefire, and Resolution 2735 (June 2024) endorsing a three-phase proposal. The General Assembly repeatedly voted by large margins for ceasefire — 153-10 in December 2023, 149-12 in June 2025.

ICJ Genocide Case (South Africa v. Israel)

South Africa filed in December 2023. The ICJ issued provisional measures in January 2024, finding “plausible” genocide risk. Further orders in March and May 2024 directed Israel to ensure food access and halt the Rafah offensive. In July 2024, a separate advisory opinion found Israel's occupation unlawful and settlements illegal. South Africa filed a 750+ page memorial in October 2024; Israel's counter-memorial was due March 2026. Brazil and Belgium have joined the case. A final ruling could take years.

ICC Arrest Warrants

On 21 November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity, including starvation as a method of warfare. First ICC warrant against a Western-backed democratic leader. All 125 member states obligated to arrest. The Netherlands and several European states indicated they would comply. The US rejected the warrants. The ICC upheld them on appeal.

Recognition of Palestine

The war accelerated recognition dramatically. Ireland, Norway, and Spain recognised Palestine in May 2024. In September 2025, a wave led by France brought G7 members (France, UK, Canada) into the fold for the first time. As of September 2025, 157 of 193 UN member states (over 80%) recognise Palestine. Four of five permanent Security Council members now recognise it; only the US does not.

Arms Embargo Debates

The war prompted unprecedented arms export debates. Slovenia became the first EU country to impose a full arms embargo (August 2025). Spain imposed a total embargo. Canada, Netherlands, Italy, UK, and Germany imposed partial restrictions. The US — by far Israel's largest supplier — imposed no embargo. Biden's only restriction (the 2,000-lb bomb pause) was reversed by Trump on day one.

Hezbollah-Israel Conflict

Hezbollah opened a second front on 8 October 2023, launching cross-border attacks that forced the evacuation of 60,000 Israeli civilians from northern communities. The conflict escalated dramatically in September 2024 with the pager/walkie-talkie attack (42 killed, 4,000 injured), the assassination of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah (27 September), and a ground invasion on 1 October. A 60-day ceasefire took effect 27 November 2024. Lebanese casualties: 4,047 killed, 16,638 injured. By February 2026, 64,000 Lebanese remained displaced. On 2 March 2026, Hezbollah re-engaged in response to US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Houthi Red Sea Campaign

From November 2023, Yemen's Houthis attacked commercial shipping in solidarity with Palestinians. Over 190 attacks by October 2024 caused a 90% decrease in Red Sea container shipping, forcing ships around the Cape of Good Hope (11,000 extra nautical miles, $1M additional fuel per voyage). The US/UK launched strikes in January 2024 (Operation Poseidon Archer) and March 2025 (Operation Rough Rider). The Houthis paused during ceasefires but threatened to resume after the February 2026 Iran strikes.

Iran: From Proxy War to Direct Confrontation

The conflict fundamentally transformed the Iran-Israel dynamic from decades of proxy warfare to direct military confrontation. April 2024: Iran's first-ever strike on Israel (300+ projectiles, 99% intercepted). October 2024: second Iranian strike (200 missiles) and Israeli retaliation. June 2025: the “Twelve-Day War” — Israel struck 100+ targets, US bombed three nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), setting Iran's programme back ~2 years. ~1,062 killed. February 2026: US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliated across the region. The conflict has become an overt multi-front confrontation involving two of the region's most powerful states and the world's sole superpower.

Syria

Israel regularly struck Iranian assets in Syria throughout 2024. The April 2024 consulate strike triggered Iran's first direct attack on Israel. In December 2024, the Assad regime collapsed as opposition forces rapidly seized the country. Russia (occupied in Ukraine) and Iran/Hezbollah (weakened by Israeli strikes) could not intervene. Post-Assad, Israel launched 600+ air, drone, or artillery attacks across Syria, occupied the buffer zone, and built military posts in southwestern Syria.

Egypt

Egypt's Rafah crossing became a central flashpoint. Israel seized it in May 2024, shutting aid flow. Egypt opposed permanent Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor, viewing it as a treaty violation. Despite tensions, Egypt remained a central mediator, co-brokering the January 2025 ceasefire. Egypt consistently refused to accept mass Palestinian refugee flows and opposed forced displacement. The crossing reopened February 2026.

Jordan and Others

Jordan recalled its ambassador, pulled out of a joint water-energy deal, and its parliament voted to expel the Israeli ambassador. Despite this, security cooperation continued — Jordan intercepted Iranian projectiles during the April 2024 attack. Turkey suspended bilateral trade with Israel in May 2024. Qatar served as a key mediator. Saudi normalisation was frozen; Crown Prince MBS conditioned it on Palestinian statehood.

Settler Violence Escalation

Settler violence escalated dramatically after October 7. From October 2023 to December 2024: at least 1,860 incidents, averaging four per day. In 2025: 867 incidents recorded by IDF/Shin Bet, a 27% increase. Severe incidents (shootings, arson) spiked over 50%. October 2025 saw the highest monthly number since OCHA began documenting in 2006 — over 260 attacks, eight per day. Only about 3% of cases result in convictions. In January 2025, Defence Minister Katz declared administrative detention would no longer apply to Jewish settlers — only to Palestinians.

Settlement Expansion & Annexation

2025 saw a record 41 new settlements approved. The Knesset passed a resolution supporting annexation in July 2025; an annexation bill received preliminary passage 25-24. In February 2026, the security cabinet approved sweeping measures to expand Israeli powers, ease sale of Palestinian land to settlers, and allocated 244 million NIS for land registration in Area C — described by critics as de facto annexation. Finance Minister Smotrich announced 2.7 billion shekels for 17 new colonies. Trump warned Israel would lose “all support” if formal annexation proceeded, but imposed no consequences for the de facto measures.

International Sanctions on Far-Right Ministers

In June 2025, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK sanctioned ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for incitement of violence. Sanctions included asset freezes and travel bans. Slovenia separately barred both.

Israeli Coalition Politics

The 37th government, formed December 2022, is widely regarded as the most right-wing in Israel's history. Coalition partners Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) left over the January 2025 ceasefire, then rejoined in March. United Torah Judaism left in July 2025. December 2025 polls showed the opposition leading 69-51. Mass hostage protests defined domestic politics: an estimated 500,000–750,000 protested after six hostages were found killed in September 2024. Hostage families publicly blamed Netanyahu.

Palestinian Authority Crisis

PA President Abbas hit 19% approval in May 2025; 83% of West Bankers wanted him to resign. No elections since 2006. A “technocratic” cabinet under PM Mohammad Mustafa was appointed March 2024. The PA launched its own operation in Jenin (December 2024) targeting the Jenin Brigades — the most intense intra-Palestinian fighting since 2007. In April 2025, Abbas created a VP post for Hussein al-Sheikh as likely successor. The PA controls only 39% of the West Bank; 61% is under direct Israeli control.

Hamas Leadership Decimation

Israel systematically targeted Hamas leadership: Haniyeh assassinated July 2024, Sinwar killed October 2024, Mohammed Sinwar (brother) reportedly killed June 2025. A provisional leadership council was formed. As of early 2026, Khalil al-Hayya is the leading candidate for permanent leadership.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

With Hamas weakened, PIJ has increased West Bank operations: announcing “Operation Blinding Vision,” claiming attacks, and recruiting. The Jenin Brigades militia operates under three factions: PIJ, Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, and Hamas.