Sudan's Civil War: The Crisis the World Forgot
Since April 2023, a war between two military factions has created the world's largest displacement crisis, triggered famine, and enabled atrocities that the US government has called genocide.
Sudan is living through what the United Nations, WHO, and virtually every major humanitarian organization now call the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. The numbers are almost incomprehensible: 33.7 million people need assistance — roughly two-thirds of the entire population. Over 13.6 million have been displaced, more than in any other country on earth. Famine has been formally declared in parts of Darfur, with 21 million facing acute food insecurity. Credible estimates place the death toll between 150,000 and 400,000, though the true number may never be known.
Yet this crisis receives a fraction of the global attention given to conflicts in Ukraine or Gaza. Sudan's war generates roughly 600 news articles per month in international media, compared to over 100,000 for those conflicts. This page compiles what we know about how Sudan arrived here, who is responsible, and why the world is looking away.
Both SAF and RSF leaders have little incentive to do a deal since they and their regional backers continue to profit from Sudan's war, with large quantities of gold flowing out of the country while increasingly advanced weapons move in the opposite direction.International Crisis Group, 2025
By the Numbers
As of early 2026. All figures carry significant uncertainty due to access constraints.
Timeline of the Conflict
From revolution to civil war
The Humanitarian Catastrophe
The world's worst crisis by nearly every measure
The Largest Displacement Crisis on Earth
Over 13.6 million people have been uprooted — approximately 9.3 million internally displaced within Sudan and 4.3 million who have fled to neighboring countries including Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. This surpasses the displacement figures from Ukraine and Gaza combined.
Many have been displaced multiple times, as areas where people initially sought refuge (such as Wad Madani) subsequently fell to RSF forces, triggering secondary and tertiary waves of displacement.
Famine Declared — Millions More at Risk
The IPC formally declared famine conditions (Phase 5) in parts of North Darfur, including the Zamzam displacement camp near El Fasher. Approximately 25 million people face acute food insecurity — more than half the population. In North Darfur alone, nearly 85,000 children with severe acute malnutrition were treated in 2025 — roughly one child every six minutes.
Food insecurity has more than tripled since the pre-conflict period, driven by the destruction of agricultural areas, displacement of farming communities, and deliberate obstruction of humanitarian access.
Counting the Dead in the Dark
Official UN figures cite approximately 20,000–30,000 killed, but these are acknowledged as severe undercounts. ACLED recorded 30,813 conflict fatalities from April 2023 to December 2024. A London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine study found that in Khartoum State alone, 90% of fatalities went unrecorded.
Credible expert estimates range from 150,000 to over 400,000 dead when accounting for indirect deaths from disease, malnutrition, and healthcare collapse. The true toll may never be known.
A Health System in Ruins
37% of health facilities across Sudan are non-functional. WHO has verified 201 attacks on healthcare since the war began, resulting in 1,858 deaths and 490 injuries. Outbreaks of cholera, malaria, dengue, and measles have spread through overcrowded displacement camps with poor sanitation.
Medical staff have fled or been killed. Essential supplies cannot reach most facilities. Pregnant women, chronically ill patients, and children face life-threatening gaps in care.
Sexual Violence as a Weapon of War
RSF forces have been extensively documented using sexual violence as a systematic tool of war, particularly in Darfur and Khartoum. Survivors report gang rape, sexual slavery, and ethnically targeted sexual violence against non-Arab women. The scale is believed to be vast, but underreported due to stigma, lack of services, and the impossibility of documentation in conflict zones.
Humanitarian Access: Blocked and Attacked
Both parties to the conflict obstruct humanitarian access, though patterns differ. The SAF has imposed bureaucratic barriers on aid delivery, while the RSF controls territory where aid workers face looting, detention, and violence. Aid workers have been killed. Cross-line and cross-border operations face constant disruption.
The humanitarian system requires $4.2 billion in 2025, but funding appeals have been drastically underfunded. Between January and March 2025, partners reached 8.6 million people — a fraction of the 30+ million in need.
Key Actors
The belligerents and their backers
SAF — Sudanese Armed Forces
Led by Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the SAF represents the traditional Sudanese military establishment. Operating from its wartime capital in Port Sudan, the SAF relies heavily on airpower (including indiscriminate aerial bombardment of civilian areas) and maintains control of eastern and northern Sudan. Backed primarily by Egypt.
RSF — Rapid Support Forces
Led by Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo, the RSF evolved from the Janjaweed militias responsible for the original Darfur genocide. The RSF controls most of Darfur and large parts of Kordofan and central Sudan. Primarily backed by the UAE, funded through gold extraction. Responsible for documented genocide, ethnic cleansing, and systematic sexual violence.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE provides weapons, logistics, and financial infrastructure to the RSF while purchasing its gold. UAE gold imports from Sudan surged 70% in 2024 (29 tonnes), with the UAE receiving ~90% of Sudan's gold exports. Despite denials, intercepted arms shipments and leaked documents have repeatedly confirmed weapons flows.
Egypt
Egypt backs the SAF, viewing the RSF's expansion as a threat to its strategic interests along the Nile and a vehicle for UAE influence in the region. Egypt has provided military equipment and intelligence support to the SAF, and hosts a large population of Sudanese refugees.
Russia / Wagner Group
Russia has been involved in Sudan's gold sector through the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps), which has operated mining concessions and provided security assistance. Weapons transfers to the RSF via Libya and Central African Republic have been documented, though the Wagner-RSF relationship has reportedly deteriorated.
Civilian Resistance Committees
Sudan's neighborhood-level resistance committees, which drove the 2019 revolution, continue to operate under extraordinary danger. They document atrocities, organize mutual aid, maintain community governance in some areas, and represent the civilian voice against both military factions. Many members have been killed, detained, or displaced.
The Genocide in Darfur
History repeating — with even less international attention
From Janjaweed to RSF: Two Decades of Impunity
The RSF's origins lie in the Janjaweed — the Arab militia forces that carried out the Darfur genocide of the 2000s under President Bashir's direction. Hemedti rose through these ranks, and the RSF was formally constituted in 2013 as a way to legitimize these forces. The patterns of violence in the current conflict — systematic targeting of non-Arab communities, sexual violence, forced displacement, destruction of livelihoods — directly mirror the earlier genocide.
The failure to achieve accountability for the original Darfur genocide (ICC warrants against Bashir remain unexecuted) arguably enabled its repetition. The same communities — Massalit, Fur, Zaghawa — are being targeted by the same forces, now better armed and operating with even less international scrutiny.
El Geneina: "Kill Every Black Skin"
In mid-2023, RSF and allied Arab militia forces carried out a systematic campaign of violence against the Massalit people in El Geneina, capital of West Darfur. Thousands were killed, with survivors reporting orders to "kill every Black skin." The city's governor was murdered after publicly accusing the RSF of genocide. Hundreds of thousands fled to Chad.
El Fasher Massacre (October 2025)
Beginning October 26, 2025, RSF forces carried out what humanitarian experts consider the worst single atrocity of the war in El Fasher, the last SAF-held city in Darfur. Tens of thousands of civilians were killed. The city had been sheltering approximately 1.5 million displaced people, many of whom had already fled violence elsewhere in Darfur.
International Response — Or Lack Thereof
A crisis defined by what the world chose not to do
Stalled Peace Talks
The Jeddah peace process, mediated by the US and Saudi Arabia, produced initial ceasefire agreements in 2023 that were immediately violated. Subsequent rounds have failed to gain traction, with both parties viewing the talks as performative rather than substantive. The SAF has at times boycotted proceedings entirely.
The African Union and IGAD have attempted regional mediation with limited results. No framework has achieved meaningful buy-in from both belligerents or their external backers.
Why the World Is Looking Away
Sudan competes for attention with Ukraine and Gaza — conflicts involving major powers or key Western allies. Sudan lacks a powerful state patron demanding action. Access limitations mean the atrocities cannot be easily filmed or photographed. The conflict's complexity (two military factions, neither representing democracy) defies simple narratives. And structural media biases consistently undercount African crises.
The result: Sudan generates ~600 news articles per month globally, compared to 100,000+ for Gaza and Ukraine. A 2023 poll found 75% of Americans either did not understand or barely understood the Sudan conflict.
The Accountability Gap
The ICC has existing warrants related to the original Darfur genocide (including against deposed President Bashir) that remain unexecuted. New investigations into current atrocities face the same structural obstacles: lack of state cooperation, limited access to evidence, and geopolitical interests that override justice.
The US genocide determination (January 2025) carried moral weight but imposed no new practical consequences. Targeted sanctions against individuals have been limited and largely symbolic.
Gold Out, Weapons In
The war sustains itself through a self-reinforcing economic cycle. The RSF extracts gold from mines in Darfur and Kordofan (estimated $850M+ in 2024–2025), sells it primarily through UAE-based networks, and uses the revenue to purchase weapons and recruit fighters. The UAE imported 29 tonnes of Sudanese gold in 2024 — a 70% increase. Until this gold-for-weapons pipeline is disrupted, the economic incentives favor continued war.
Analysis & Outlook
What would need to change
Three Scenarios for 2026
1. Continued all-out war — the most likely outcome. Both sides retain external support, neither can achieve decisive military victory, and the economic incentives favor fighting. Civilian suffering will continue to escalate.
2. De facto partition — the RSF consolidates control over Darfur and parts of Kordofan while the SAF holds the center, east, and north, without formal agreement. This could calcify into permanent division, with ongoing low-level violence along contact lines.
3. Negotiated ceasefire — the least likely scenario, requiring external backers (particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE) to end their proxy competition and cut supply lines. No current diplomatic framework makes this plausible.
What Would Need to Change
- Arms embargo with enforcement targeting the UAE-RSF supply chain
- Gold sanctions on networks converting RSF-mined gold into weapons
- Accountability mechanisms with state cooperation for ICC investigations
- Sustained media and public attention creating political pressure
- Humanitarian corridors with consequences for obstruction
None of these changes appear imminent.
What We Don't Know
Casualty figures are almost certainly massive underestimates. Famine data cannot be collected in many RSF-held areas. Atrocity documentation relies heavily on refugee testimony from those who reached Chad. Events in areas without humanitarian presence may go entirely unrecorded.
This uncertainty is itself part of the story. The international community has allowed a crisis to unfold in conditions where the full truth may never be known.
Key Sources
Where this research draws from
- OCHA — UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: humanitarian needs assessments, response dashboards, situation reports
- UNHCR — Refugee tracking across Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Ethiopia; displacement figures
- WHO — Health system assessments, attacks on healthcare verification, disease outbreak tracking
- IPC — Integrated Food Security Phase Classification: famine declarations and food insecurity mapping
- ACLED — Armed Conflict Location & Event Data: conflict fatality tracking and event documentation
- Human Rights Watch — Ethnic cleansing documentation in West Darfur; atrocity reporting
- Chatham House — Gold economy analysis and regional conflict ecosystem mapping
- International Crisis Group — Conflict analysis, policy recommendations, and peace process assessment
- MSF — Field reports on healthcare access, malnutrition treatment, attacks on medical facilities
- US State Department — Genocide determination (January 2025) and accountability measures
- LSHTM — London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine: mortality estimation studies
- Radio Dabanga / Sudan Tribune — Independent local reporting from conflict zones