# Commercial Risks Summary

Date checked: 2026-04-13

## Bottom Line

The business case is most fragile because the best current economics depend on a narrow set of smart-meter EV tariffs, while the regulatory and tariff environment is already moving toward dynamic pricing. That makes the current spread a moving target rather than a stable moat.

**Claim:** SEAI's public home grant pages list solar PV, heat pumps, insulation, windows, and other upgrades, but not a home battery grant.
- **Confidence:** C1
- **Sources:** https://www.seai.ie/grants/home-energy-grants/individual-grants ; https://www.seai.ie/grants/home-energy-grants/individual-grants/solar-electricity-grant
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This is a page-content claim, not a formal legal statement that batteries can never be supported. The practical takeaway is that battery-only retrofits lack the subsidy support available to solar PV.

**Claim:** SEAI says battery storage can increase self-consumption, but it also says battery storage adds extra installation cost; SEAI also says typical solar PV payback is 10-12 years once the grant is included.
- **Confidence:** C1
- **Sources:** https://www.seai.ie/renewable-energy/solar-energy
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This is about solar PV, not standalone battery arbitrage. The point is that batteries are an added cost on top of a payback profile that is already measured in years, not months.

**Claim:** SEAI's solar PV grant is capped at €1,800 and requires an approved application before works begin.
- **Confidence:** C1
- **Sources:** https://www.seai.ie/grants/home-energy-grants/individual-grants/solar-electricity-grant ; https://www.seai.ie/grants/home-energy-grants/solar-electricity-grant
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** A capped solar grant does not close the economics gap for a battery-only offer.

**Claim:** The strongest current market tariff appeal is concentrated in EV-style smart plans, not ordinary flat or mild day/night plans.
- **Confidence:** C1
- **Sources:** https://www.bordgaisenergy.ie/home/ev-plan-comparison ; https://www.energia.ie/about-energia/our-tariffs ; https://www.electricireland.ie/residential/electricity-and-gas/ev-night-boost ; https://communitypower.ie/tariffs/
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This is supported by the large spread between low windows and peak import rates on EV plans, compared with much narrower spreads on ordinary smart tariffs.

**Claim:** Bord Gais's EV plan has an annual standing charge of €325.52 versus €218.54 on its standard smart tariff, a premium of about €107/year.
- **Confidence:** C1
- **Sources:** https://www.bordgaisenergy.ie/home/ev-plan-comparison
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This hidden fixed cost can erase a large share of the battery's gross arbitrage value for smaller households.

**Claim:** On the current CRU consultation, there are no dynamic tariffs in the Irish retail market yet, and obligated suppliers are expected to introduce them by June 2026; Energia also says dynamic tariffs are coming in Summer 2026.
- **Confidence:** C1
- **Sources:** https://consult.cru.ie/en/system/files/flipbook_pdf/CRU202566-Consultation%20on%20a%20Review%20of%20the%20Accreditation%20Framework%20for%20Price%20Comparison%20Websites.pdf ; https://www.energia.ie/about-energia/latest-news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-dynamic-electricity-tariffs
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This is the main policy-risk claim. A business built on fixed TOU spreads is exposed when retail pricing becomes more granular and more volatile.

**Claim:** Energy-price uncertainty is an explicit downside of dynamic tariffs, including price spikes and harder bill forecasting.
- **Confidence:** C2
- **Sources:** https://www.energia.ie/about-energia/latest-news/everything-you-need-to-know-about-dynamic-electricity-tariffs
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This is a supplier explanation of its own forthcoming product, so treat the framing as credible but directional.

**Claim:** A 5 kWh battery's gross arbitrage value is highly tariff-sensitive. Using a simple 85% usable window, 92% round-trip efficiency, and one full cycle per day, the annual gross value is roughly €475 on Bord Gais EV, about €182 on Bord Gais standard smart, about €348 on Electric Ireland Night Boost, and about €266 on Community Power Smart.
- **Confidence:** C3
- **Sources:** https://www.bordgaisenergy.ie/home/ev-plan-comparison ; https://www.electricireland.ie/residential/electricity-and-gas/ev-night-boost ; https://communitypower.ie/tariffs/ ; https://www.energia.ie/about-energia/our-tariffs
- **Date checked:** 2026-04-13
- **Notes:** This is our calculation from current tariff spreads. It is an upper bound because many homes will not achieve a full usable cycle every day, and discharge value depends on the household's actual load shape.