https://gwern.net Pages from gwern.net in the 'Economics & Technology Forecasting' section Sat, 07 Mar 2026 22:52:09 +0000 GwernRSSBuilder/1.0 https://gwern.net/harberger https://gwern.net/harberger Copyright mechanism proposal to solve the orphan works problem: self-assessed Harberger taxes on any inherited copyright are then invested, and dedicated to eventually buying out the owners. Works are either immediately public-domained, or the owners voluntarily ‘sell’ them if their value underperforms a baseline investment. Gwern Thu, 21 Nov 2024 00:00:00 +0000 2024-11-22T00:00:00Z essay economics/copyright economics/mechanism-design https://gwern.net/matt-levine https://gwern.net/matt-levine Why are popularizing educational newsletter-frequency writers of important fields like Matt Levine for finance so rare? Because most fields are too slow or ambiguous, and writers of the right combination of expertise, obsession, and persistence are also rare. Gwern Tue, 24 Sep 2024 00:00:00 +0000 2024-09-24T00:00:00Z essay economics psychology/writing https://gwern.net/startup-idea https://gwern.net/startup-idea Proposals for new technologies, businesses, startups, satirical or serious. Gwern Mon, 21 Aug 2017 00:00:00 +0000 2024-01-14T00:00:00Z essay economics fiction/humor technology https://gwern.net/improvement https://gwern.net/improvement A list of unheralded improvements to ordinary quality-of-life since the 1990s going beyond computers. Gwern Sat, 28 Apr 2018 00:00:00 +0000 2022-12-20T00:00:00Z essay economics history insight-porn personal sociology/technology https://gwern.net/complement https://gwern.net/complement A classic pattern in technology economics, identified by Joel Spolsky, is layers of the stack attempting to become monopolies while turning other layers into perfectly-competitive markets which are commoditized, in order to harvest most of the consumer surplus; discussion and examples. Gwern Sat, 17 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0000 2022-01-11T00:00:00Z essay ai/scaling/economics economics insight-porn technology/google https://gwern.net/holy-war https://gwern.net/holy-war Flamewars over platforms & upgrades are so bitter not because people are jerks but because the choice will influence entire ecosystems, benefiting one platform through network effects & avoiding ‘bitrot’ while subtly sabotaging the rest through ‘bitcreep’. Gwern Mon, 15 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000 2020-07-09T00:00:00Z essay cs/python design economics insight-porn sociology/technology https://gwern.net/greenland https://gwern.net/greenland Exercise in pointing out the obvious: Greenland has been, is, and will be indefinitely, a white elephant. Denmark turned down 100m USD from the USA in 1946; I discuss how this was a bad idea—America got what it needed anyway while Denmark kept control of a loser. Gwern Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 +0000 2019-08-17T00:00:00Z essay philosophy/ethics politics https://gwern.net/timing https://gwern.net/timing Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. Gwern Thu, 12 Jul 2012 00:00:00 +0000 2019-06-20T00:00:00Z essay ai/nn bitcoin economics history insight-porn sociology/technology statistics/decision technology/virtual-reality https://gwern.net/prediction-market https://gwern.net/prediction-market My prediction/betting strategies and track record, reflections on rationality, prediction judgments Gwern Sat, 10 Jan 2009 00:00:00 +0000 2019-05-16T00:00:00Z essay anime/eva bitcoin cs/haskell darknet-market economics math politics psychology/spaced-repetition science/fermi-problem statistics/bayes statistics/prediction/election statistics/survival-analysis survey wikipedia https://gwern.net/long-bets https://gwern.net/long-bets Evaluating Long Bets as a prediction market shows it is dysfunctional and poorly-structured; despite the irrationality of many users, it is not good even as a way to raise money for charity. Gwern Fri, 24 Feb 2017 00:00:00 +0000 2018-02-24T00:00:00Z essay cs/r economics philosophy/ethics statistics/prediction https://gwern.net/girl-scouts https://gwern.net/girl-scouts Cookie prices & tax filings as evidence of corporate inefficiency Gwern Thu, 21 Apr 2011 00:00:00 +0000 2015-02-15T00:00:00Z essay economics math philosophy/ethics politics statistics/survival-analysis technology https://gwern.net/copyright https://gwern.net/copyright Copyright considered paradoxical, incoherent, and harmful from an information theory and compression perspective as there is no natural kind corresponding to ‘works’, merely longer or shorter strings for stupider or smarter algorithms. Gwern Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:00:00 +0000 2014-05-04T00:00:00Z essay cs/algorithm/information/compression philosophy politics https://gwern.net/long-stagnation https://gwern.net/long-stagnation Shrinking marginal returns to science and technology Gwern Fri, 24 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0000 2013-12-30T00:00:00Z essay economics transhumanism https://gwern.net/console-insurance https://gwern.net/console-insurance Back of envelope financial calculations: Warranties, fine; insurance, no! Gwern Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:00:00 +0000 2012-02-02T00:00:00Z essay economics statistics/decision