https://gwern.net Pages from gwern.net in the 'Statistics, Methodology & Meta-Science' section Sat, 07 Mar 2026 22:52:09 +0000 GwernRSSBuilder/1.0 https://gwern.net/note/statistic https://gwern.net/note/statistic Miscellaneous statistical stuff Gwern Thu, 17 Jul 2014 00:00:00 +0000 2024-08-21T00:00:00Z essay cs/haskell cs/js cs/r genetics iq statistics/bayes statistics/causality statistics/decision statistics/order statistics/power-analysis survey https://gwern.net/everything https://gwern.net/everything Anthology of sociology, statistical, or psychological papers discussing the observation that all real-world variables have non-zero correlations and the implications for statistical theory such as ‘null hypothesis testing’. Gwern Fri, 12 Sep 2014 00:00:00 +0000 2023-04-30T00:00:00Z essay economics/advertising genetics/heritable/correlation insight-porn philosophy/epistemology sociology/survey/lizardman statistics/bayes/regression-to-mean statistics/causality statistics/variance-component survey https://gwern.net/correlation https://gwern.net/correlation Compilation of studies comparing observational results with randomized experimental results on the same intervention, compiled from medicine/economics/psychology, indicating that a large fraction of the time (although probably not a majority) correlation ≠ causality. Gwern Tue, 24 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000 2022-06-14T00:00:00Z essay economics insight-porn psychology/cognitive-bias statistics/bayes/regression-to-mean statistics/bias statistics/causality https://gwern.net/fake-journal-club https://gwern.net/fake-journal-club Discussion of how to teach active reading and questioning of scientific research. Partially fake research papers may teach a critical attitude. Various ideas for games reviewed. Gwern Mon, 07 Mar 2022 00:00:00 +0000 2022-03-25T00:00:00Z essay ai/nn/transformer/gpt/nonfiction design/typography philosophy/epistemology statistics https://gwern.net/littlewood https://gwern.net/littlewood Selection effects in media become increasingly strong as populations and media increase, meaning that rare datapoints driven by unusual processes such as the mentally ill or hoaxers are increasingly unreliable as evidence of anything at all and must be ignored. At scale, anything that can happen will happen a small but nonzero times. Gwern Sat, 15 Dec 2018 00:00:00 +0000 2022-01-02T00:00:00Z essay insight-porn philosophy/epistemology politics psychology/cognitive-bias psychology/personality/psychopathy sociology/survey/lizardman sociology/technology/parasocial statistics/bias https://gwern.net/littlewood-origin https://gwern.net/littlewood-origin Leprechaun hunting the origins of the famous skeptical observation that because millions of events are constantly happening, ‘miracles’ happen once a month; it was actually coined by Freeman Dyson. Gwern Sat, 16 Feb 2019 00:00:00 +0000 2021-05-18T00:00:00Z essay philosophy psychology statistics https://gwern.net/mouse-utopia https://gwern.net/mouse-utopia Did John Calhoun’s 1960s Mouse Utopia really show that animal (and human) populations will expand to arbitrary densities, creating socially-driven pathology and collapse? Reasons for doubt. Gwern Mon, 12 Aug 2019 00:00:00 +0000 2021-05-16T00:00:00Z essay genetics/heritable sociology statistics/bias https://gwern.net/leprechaun https://gwern.net/leprechaun List of academic urban legends, and references on how often writers do not check references, which seems to be a major reason for their propagation. Gwern Mon, 30 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000 2021-05-15T00:00:00Z essay philosophy/epistemology sociology statistics/bias https://gwern.net/hydrocephalus https://gwern.net/hydrocephalus Some claim the disease hydrocephalus reduces brain size by 95% but often with normal or even above-average intelligence, and thus brains aren’t really necessary. Neither is true. Gwern Tue, 28 Jul 2015 00:00:00 +0000 2020-05-13T00:00:00Z essay iq/low psychology/neuroscience/anencephaly psychology/parapsychology statistics/bias https://gwern.net/replication https://gwern.net/replication 2013 discussion of how systemic biases in science, particularly medicine and psychology, have resulted in a research literature filled with false positives and exaggerated effects, called ‘the Replication Crisis’. Gwern Wed, 27 Oct 2010 00:00:00 +0000 2019-12-09T00:00:00Z essay dual-n-back longevity nootropic psychology sociology statistics/bayes/regression-to-mean statistics/bias/publication statistics/causality statistics/meta-analysis https://gwern.net/causality https://gwern.net/causality Correlations are oft interpreted as evidence for causation; this is oft falsified; do causal graphs explain why this is so common, because the number of possible indirect paths greatly exceeds the direct paths necessary for useful manipulation? Gwern Tue, 24 Jun 2014 00:00:00 +0000 2019-12-09T00:00:00Z essay insight-porn longevity philosophy/epistemology psychology/cognitive-bias statistics/bayes statistics/bias statistics/causality https://gwern.net/research-criticism https://gwern.net/research-criticism Criticizing studies and statistics is hard in part because so many criticisms are possible, rendering them meaningless. What makes a good criticism is the chance of being a ‘difference which makes a difference’ to our ultimate actions. Gwern Sun, 19 May 2019 00:00:00 +0000 2019-07-07T00:00:00Z essay philosophy/epistemology statistics/bayes statistics/bias statistics/causality statistics/decision