Total Demand: Data Centre vs Non-DC C1
Non-data-centre metered demand has been essentially flat at ~24,000-25,000 GWh for a decade. Virtually all growth is attributable to data centres, which grew from 5% to 22% of metered electricity between 2015 and 2024 -- a 463% increase in absolute consumption.
Metric Definitions
Confusion often arises from comparing figures that measure different things:
| Metric | 2024 Value | What It Captures |
|---|---|---|
| CSO Metered Consumption | 31.9 TWh | Customer meter readings only |
| SEAI End-User Demand | 32.9 TWh | Metered + adjustments for unmetered loads |
| Gross Electricity Supply | ~36 TWh | Includes losses (~8-9%), own-use, imports |
| Peak System Demand | 6,024 MW | Instantaneous maximum |
The ~4 TWh gap between gross supply and metered consumption represents transmission/distribution losses and generator own-use. EirGrid's "45% growth" refers to Total Electricity Requirement (including losses).
Peak Demand Record Timeline C1
| Date | Peak (MW) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2016 | ~4,760 | 21 November 2016 |
| Dec 2022 | 5,544 | Previous multi-year record |
| Jan 2024 | 5,577 | 18 January 2024 |
| Nov 2024 | 5,639 | 20 November 2024 |
| Jan 2025 | 6,024 | 8 January 2025 -- first time above 6 GW Record |
How Each Driver Affects Peak vs Baseload C2
| Driver | Load Profile | Peak Impact | Baseload Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Centres | Flat 24/7 | Moderate Raises floor | High Constant draw |
| Heat Pumps | Winter-weighted, cold-correlated | Very High Aligned with peak | Moderate Winter only |
| EVs (unmanaged) | Evening spike | High 5-8pm coincidence | Low |
| EVs (smart charged) | Overnight shift | Low | Moderate Fills overnight valley |
| Housing Growth | Residential profile | Moderate | Moderate |
| Industrial | Daytime weekday | Moderate Shifts to 1-3pm | High |
Data Centres -- The Dominant Driver C1
22%Data centres grew from 5% to 22% of metered electricity (2015-2024), a 463% increase in absolute consumption (1.2 to 7.0 TWh). Ireland hosts ~121 operational data centres; Dublin has Europe's second-largest cluster (~1,150 MW in operation). 97% are in the Greater Dublin Area.
CRU LEU Connection Policy (Dec 2025) C1
The CRU's decision paper CRU/2025/236 ended the 4-year moratorium and established a tiered framework requiring self-generation and 80% renewable sourcing for new data centre connections.
| Tier | MIC Threshold | Self-Generation | Renewables |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (De minimis) | < 1 MVA | Exempt | Exempt |
| 2 (Medium) | 1-10 MVA | Autoproducer at 100% MIC; SEM participation | 80% new Irish renewables |
| 3 (Large) | ≥ 10 MVA | Onsite dispatchable gen/storage matching MIC; SEM | 80% new Irish renewables |
Self-generation will reduce grid draw during stress events but will not reduce total energy consumption. Most compliance will use on-site gas turbines: Microsoft is building 170 MW at Grange Castle; Digital Realty invested EUR 100m in a 9 MW gas plant. The 80% renewable obligation should drive 2-4 GW of new wind/solar via CPPAs.
Electric Vehicles C2
~1.5%Ireland reached 200,000 EVs by end-2025 (BEVs outsold diesel for the first time). Per-vehicle consumption: ~2,500-3,000 kWh/year. ~80% charged at home.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAP 2030 target | 945,000 EVs |
| Current fleet (2025) | ~200,000 |
| Gap | ~745,000 |
| Required annual adds | ~185,000/yr |
| Best actual year | 23,601 BEVs (2025) |
| Acceleration needed | ~8x current |
Realistic 2030: 350,000-500,000 EVs (40-55% of target). Demand: ~1.0-1.2 TWh. Unmanaged peak impact: up to 500 MW; smart charging reduces to 50-100 MW. Only 11% of customers on smart tariffs. C3
Heat Pumps C2
~1.5-3%CAP target: 680,000 by 2030. Current: ~150,000-180,000. New builds on track (96% electric heating). Retrofits critically behind (need ~20x acceleration).
| Segment | 2025 Target | Achieved | 2030 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| New dwellings | 170,000 | ~153,000 | 280,000 |
| Existing (retrofit) | 45,000 | ~15-17k | 400,000 |
| Total | 215,000 | ~150-180k | 680,000 |
Winter peak concern: 40-45% of annual HP consumption in Dec-Feb. After-diversity max demand per HP: ~2.3 kW (typical), rising to ~3.8 kW in extreme cold (+65%). At 680k HPs, peak addition: 1,565-2,585 MW. C3
Feb 2026 grant increase (up to EUR 12,500, 80% of costs) is most significant intervention yet.
Industrial & Commercial C2
~21%Manufacturing accounts for ~6.7-7.0 TWh (~21% of total). Key consumers:
- Intel (Leixlip): ~130-140 MW average load. Fab 34 (EUR 17bn) could increase use 50%.
- Pharma: 75 companies, 99+ facilities. Pfizer EUR 1.2bn (Grange Castle, 2027); Eli Lilly USD 2bn (Limerick, 2026).
- Aughinish Alumina: ~40 MW. Suspended from energy market July 2025 (Russian ownership).
- SEAI LIEN: 200+ companies, EUR 2.2bn annual energy spend.
CAP targets 3.5 TWh of new industrial heat pumps (would add ~10-11% to total demand). LEAP introduces Green Energy Parks co-locating industry with renewables at "hundreds of MW" scale.
Residential C1
25.5%Total residential metered: 8,951 GWh (2024). Median per-household: 3,246 kWh/year. 10-year growth just 1.7%. ~2.24 million meters.
- Housing growth: Target 303,000 new homes by 2030 (60,000/yr). Actual 2025: ~36,000. Each NZEB home: ~5,000 kWh/yr.
- Microgeneration: 155,000+ rooftop solar installations (800+ MW). Net metered reduction ~200-350 GWh.
- Smart meters: 1.9M installed (83% coverage), but only 11% on smart tariffs. 58% unaware they need to switch.
- Energy poverty: 300,000 homes in arrears. Avg bill nearly doubled in 5 years (EUR 976 to EUR 1,817).
EirGrid projects residential to grow ~7 TWh to 2035 (from ~9 to ~16 TWh), driven by HPs, EVs (home charging), and housing. Second-fastest sector after DCs. C2
Hydrogen C2
<0.1%Not material through 2030. No large-scale electrolysers operational. Total firm pipeline: ~130-135 MW, none at FID. Ireland lacks heavy industrial anchor customers.
| Period | Realistic Demand | Grid Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-2030 | 0-0.5 TWh | Negligible |
| 2030-2035 | 0.5-4 TWh | Noticeable |
| 2035-2040 | 4-15 TWh | Significant |
| 2040-2050 | 15-40 TWh | Transformational C4 |
For modelling through 2034, hydrogen is a sensitivity/upside scenario, not base case. Longer-term: Arup estimates 215-430 kt/yr from 3.75-7.5 GW offshore wind (7-24 TWh). C3
Share of Growth C3
Total incremental growth: ~14.9 TWh from 2024 to 2034 (median scenario). Data centres account for over half of all growth despite being only 22% of current demand.
Demand Composition -- Median Scenario C3
| Component | 2024 | 2027 | 2030 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data centres | 7.0 | ~9.5 | ~12.0 | ~14.6 |
| Residential (incl. HPs, EVs) | 8.9 | ~9.5 | ~11.0 | ~13.0 |
| Industry | 6.8 | ~7.0 | ~7.5 | ~8.0 |
| Commercial (non-DC) | 6.5 | ~6.5 | ~6.5 | ~6.5 |
| Transport (EVs, public) | 0.4 | ~0.7 | ~1.2 | ~2.5 |
| Other (agri, public) | 3.3 | ~3.3 | ~3.3 | ~3.2 |
| Total | 32.9 | ~36.5 | ~41.5 | ~47.8 |
Indicative allocations. EirGrid's full sectoral breakdown is not publicly available at this granularity. These are synthesis estimates from d01-d07 with EirGrid AIRAA shares applied.
All forecasters agree demand grows substantially; no scenario shows flat or declining demand. The realistic range for 2030 is 37-45 TWh; for 2034, 42-50 TWh. The IEA's pathway suggests demand could "nearly double" by 2035 (most aggressive estimate).
Where Sources Agree C1
| Topic | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Direction of growth | All forecasters agree demand grows substantially; no scenario shows flat or declining demand |
| DCs as dominant driver | Universal agreement that DCs drove most historical growth and will continue to lead |
| 2024 DC share (22%) | CSO gold-standard measurement; accepted by all |
| Peak demand records | EirGrid real-time data; undisputed |
| CAP targets will be missed | EPA, CCAC, multiple analysts agree Ireland is off track for 2030 EV, heat pump, and renewable targets |
| Grid adequacy 2025-2027 | EirGrid, CRU, and CCAC all flag this period as "potentially challenging" |
Where Sources Disagree C3
| Topic | EirGrid | SEAI/CSO | IEA |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC share of demand 2030 | ~23% (AIRAA) | ~30% (SEAI blog) | 32% by 2026 |
| Total demand 2030 | 41 TWh (median) | Not directly forecast | Higher (doubling pathway) |
| Residential growth by 2035 | +7 TWh | Not quantified | -- |
| Demand vs GDP | Decoupled (structural) | Historical correlation | -- |
| Policy | Demand Impact | Status |
|---|---|---|
| CRU LEU Implementation | Determines pace of new DC connections; each 100 MW DC = ~0.7-0.8 TWh/year. System operator processes due 31 March 2026. | Published; pending |
| Dublin Moratorium End | Unlocks largest cluster; could add 500+ MW of DC load. Expected "at least 2028". | Grid-dependent |
| EV Purchase Grants & BIK | 2024 BIK uncertainty caused 22% sales drop. Currently EUR 3,500 grant; VRT relief to EUR 5,000. | Annual budget |
| Heat Pump Grants | Feb 2026: up to EUR 12,500 (80%). Could triple retrofit rates if effective. | Just announced |
| Gas Boiler Ban | EU EPBD requires phase-out by 2040. Transposition timeline critical for retrofit acceleration. | No Irish ban yet |
| Housing Delivery | Each 10,000 homes = ~50 GWh/year. Target 60,000/yr by 2030; actual 2025: ~36,000. | Behind target |
| Smart Tariff Adoption | Key to managing EV/HP peak impact. Only 11% uptake despite 83% smart meter coverage. | 11% uptake |
| LEAP Green Energy Parks | Enables large industrial/DC load outside Dublin. "Hundreds of MW" scale. | Entering planning |
| Carbon Price Trajectory | Affects competitiveness of electrification vs fossil. Currently ~EUR 60-70/tonne; hydrogen needs EUR 150-200. | EU ETS driven |
Demand-Side Drivers of Battery Profitability C4
Risks to BESS from Demand Trends C3
Confidence Scale
| Claim | Rating | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Historical demand data (2015-2024) | C1 | CSO metered data -- "gold standard" (SEAI's description). Directly measured from ESB Networks meters. |
| DC share of demand (22%, 2024) | C1 | CSO direct measurement; corroborated by all sources. |
| Peak demand records (6,024 MW) | C1 | EirGrid real-time system data. |
| CRU LEU policy framework | C1 | Published decision paper with multiple legal analyses confirming. |
| EirGrid median: ~41 TWh by 2030 | C2 | Well-constructed scenarios but wide range (37-45 TWh). DC-timing-dependent. |
| 945k EV target will be missed | C2 | EPA, CCAC, Irish Times, and multiple analysts agree. Trajectory implies 350-500k by 2030. |
| 680k heat pump target will be missed | C2 | Retrofit stream critically behind (~20x acceleration needed). EPA projects 571k. |
| Hydrogen negligible through 2030 | C2 | No large electrolysers under construction; pipeline ~130 MW, none at FID. |
| Year-by-year trajectory 2025-2034 | C3 | Interpolated from anchor points; depends on lumpy DC connections. |
| DC share disagreement (23%/30%/32%) | C3 | Different methodologies; resolution depends on connection timing. |
| 5.8 GW pipeline realisation (30-60%) | C3 | Inference from historical conversion rates + new CRU requirements. |
| HP + EV peak impact (800-1,500 MW) | C3 | Calculated from per-unit ADMD data with diversity assumptions; not validated at scale. |
| BESS arbitrage implications | C4 | Directional inferences from demand trends; actual profitability depends on supply-side factors and market design. |
| 2050 demand of ~75 TWh (MaREI) | C4 | Academic modelling of Net Zero pathway; 25-year horizon with enormous uncertainty. |
| Hydrogen export economy (late 2030s) | C4 | Government ambition backed by resource assessment but no infrastructure, no FID, no confirmed demand. |
Data Sources
- CSO Metered Electricity Consumption 2024
- CSO Data Centres Metered Electricity Consumption 2024
- SEAI Energy in Ireland 2024
- EirGrid AIRAA 2025-2034
- EirGrid TES 2023
- IEA Powering Ireland's Energy Future (2025)
- CRU Decision Paper CRU/2025/236
- Climate Action Plan 2024
- EPA Projections 2025
- CCAC Annual Review 2025
- National Hydrogen Strategy (July 2023)
- SIMI Registration Data