02
The Evidence Chain
How we got from data to verdict
Foundation
Primary data sources
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Capital Costs
EUR 34.0M (EUR 170/kWh) · 17 components
C2-C3
How: Bottom-up build from 17 components. Vendor quotes (BYD, CATL, Sungrow), Irish project comparisons (Lumcloon, Porterstown), industry databases.
→ Cells EUR 68/kWh · Total EUR 170/kWh · Transformer bottleneck (128-week lead)
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Operating Charges
EUR 3.54M/yr · D-TUoS = 84% of fees
C1
How: Line-by-line from CRU tariff schedules, SEMO invoices, EirGrid published rates. Every charge traced to a regulatory document.
→ D-TUoS EUR 2.97M/yr (84% of charges) · Reform could save EUR 1.9M/yr
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Market Data
64,670 hours · 7 years SEM prices
C1
How: 64,670 hourly SEMOpx Day-Ahead prices scraped and validated (Oct 2018 – Feb 2026). Backtest with 2 strategies: fixed-schedule and perfect-foresight.
→ Average 4hr spread EUR 62/MWh · Capture rate 54–100% depending on strategy
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Market Structure
Peak EUR 156 / Trough EUR 81 · 22% datacenter demand
C1-C2
How: Supply broken down by fuel type using EirGrid and ENTSO-E data. Demand profiled by sector from CSO, SEAI, and EirGrid reports.
→ Wind drives spreads (3.3x low/high ratio) · Datacenters = 22% of demand (flat baseload) · Gas sets marginal price most hours
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Sourced costs, fees, prices, and market structure → analyzed spreads, revenue, duration, and price distributions
Analysis
Derived insights
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Spread Outlook
EUR 76→84/MWh · 4 price drivers modelled
C2-C3
How: Waterfall model decomposing spread into 4 drivers: offshore wind (+), solar (+), BESS fleet (−), Celtic IC (−). Each driver sized from EirGrid capacity pipeline.
→ Net spread roughly stable at EUR 83–86/MWh through 2040
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Revenue Model
EUR 149k/MW/yrEUR 7.5M/yr · 3 revenue streams
C2-C4
How: Three stacked streams — arbitrage (from backtest), CRM (from T-4 auction data), DASSA (from DS3 programme estimates). Capture rate calibrated between backtest bounds.
→ EUR 149k/MW/yr totalEUR 7.5M/yr total · CRM and DASSA are C3–C4 confidence
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Duration Analysis
4h wins · +61% revenue vs 2h
C2-C3
How: Year-by-year comparison of 2hr vs 4hr using the same backtest engine. Revenue, CAPEX, ROI computed for both. CRM advantage analysed from de-rating factors.
→ 4hr earns +61% revenue · +21% higher ROI · Better CRM qualification
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Price Modeling
Mean EUR 66k/MW/yrMean EUR 3.3M/yr · P(≥80k) = 0.4%P(≥4.0M) = 0.4% · 1,000 scenarios
C2-C3
How: Regime-switching stochastic model (3 regimes) calibrated on 2019–2024 data, validated on 2025. 1,000 Monte Carlo scenarios of battery dispatch.
→ Mean arbitrage EUR 66k/MW · P10 floor EUR 60k · EUR 80k target has 0.4% probabilityMean arbitrage EUR 3.3M/yr · P10 floor EUR 3.0M · EUR 4.0M target has 0.4% probability
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Spreads, revenue stack, duration, and price modeling feed into the final investment model
Synthesis
Investment verdict
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Profitability
IRR −3.5% (no reform) → ~8.7% (reform Yr 3) · 20-year cash flow model
C3
How: 20-year discounted cash flow model combining all upstream inputs. Corrected model shows negative base-case. Three scenarios: no reform, reform from Year 3, reform from Year 1.
→ IRR −3.5% (no reform) → ~8.7% (reform Yr 3) / ~10.8% (reform Yr 1) · MOIC 0.35x · Total FCF EUR −21.4M
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Sensitivity & Scenarios
6 variables · Sourced tornado · Risk register
C3
How: One-variable-at-a-time tornado analysis on 7 inputs, plus 3 multi-variable scenarios. Each sensitivity range sourced from upstream confidence intervals.
→ D-TUoS reform is #1 swing factor (41.1% of revenue) · Without reform: negative IRR, no payback
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Click any card to peek inside — or click the link to dive deep.
03
Quick Summary
Key numbers at a glance
Capex
EUR 34.0M
Range: 29.6–39.9M
Gross Revenue (Yr 1)
EUR 9.4M
EUR 9,434k gross; fees consume majority
D-TUoS Charges
3,115k/yr
41.1% of Year 1 gross revenue (EUR 9,434k)
Total Undiscounted FCF
−21.4M
Never breaks even (no reform)
Payback Period
Never
No payback without D-TUoS reform (MOIC 0.35x)
4h vs 2h Duration
4h recommended
22.3% vs 18.5% ROI
04
Reference Pages
Context, data, and supporting analysis
Full Analysis — The Real Economics of Battery Storage in Ireland
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Assumption Dependency Map — Interactive Graph of All Model Inputs
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Research Overview
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Supply & Demand Overview
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Supply Analysis
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Demand Analysis
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BESS Project Map
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EU Regulation
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Research Tracker
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Household Arbitrage
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Wholesale Price Scenario Builder
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Cross-Verification
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Hardware Catalog
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