Ireland Electricity Supply

Supply Analysis: Target vs Reality

Ireland committed to 80% renewable electricity by 2030, requiring a tripling of installed renewable capacity from ~6 GW to ~22 GW. The gap between ambition and delivery is now the defining feature of Ireland's energy transition.

55-68% RES-E realistic vs 80% target
Installed renewable
~7.4 GW (end 2025)
RES-E actual (2025)
38.4% vs 80% target
Offshore wind
0 GW operational
EU penalty exposure
8-28 bn EUR (ESR)
Peak demand (2025)
7,497 MW
01 Government Targets vs Current Status CAP 2023-2025 targets, stable since Dec 2022 C1

2030 Headline Targets — Gap Analysis

Bars show current capacity (end 2025), realistic 2030 projection based on current build rates, and the government's Climate Action Plan target. Only interconnectors are on track. All other technologies face material shortfalls.

Detailed Breakdown

Technology 2030 Target Current (End 2025) Realistic 2030 Gap to Target Status
Onshore Wind 9.0 GW ~5.2 GW 6.0-7.0 GW ~3.8 GW Behind
Offshore Wind At least 5.0 GW 0 GW 0-0.8 GW ~5.0 GW Critical
Solar PV 8.0 GW ~2.2 GW 5.0-7.0 GW ~5.8 GW Mixed signals
Flexible Gas (new) At least 2.0 GW ~0.3 GW 1.1-1.7 GW ~1.7 GW Partial
RES-E Share 80% ~38.4% 55-68% ~42 pp Will be missed
GHG Reduction (elec) 75% vs 2018 ~10% reduction -- ~65 pp Far behind

Visual Gap: Current vs Target

Onshore Wind
5.2 / 9 GW
Offshore Wind
0 / 5 GW
Solar PV
2.2 / 8 GW
Flexible Gas
0.3 / 2 GW
BESS
1.05 / 5 GW
Interconnectors
1.5 / 2.2 GW
C1 -- Targets from official CAP C1 -- Current capacity from EirGrid/SEAI

EU Obligations & Enforcement Risk C1

Obligation Target Ireland's Trajectory Consequence
ESR (non-ETS) -42% by 2030 vs 2005 -22% (EPA projection) EUR 8-28bn in allocation purchases
RED III Multiple deadlines 2024-2026 Formal notice Sept 2024; reportedly transposed CJEU referral + financial sanctions
LULUCF Net sink Forestry becoming net source Consequences undefined
Carbon budgets CB1: 295 Mt; CB2: 200 Mt CB1 exceeded by 8-12 Mt; CB2 by 77-114 Mt Political accountability only

The EU Commission assessed Ireland's updated NECP (May 2025) as "far from sufficient," noting the lack of timelines, financing detail, and renewables acceleration area designations.

02 Technology-by-Technology Analysis Detailed status for each supply technology

Onshore Wind

Behind target
Installed
5.2 GW
Target 2030
9.0 GW
Realistic 2030
6-7 GW
Under construction
450 MW
Planning granted
2,500 MW
Awaiting decision
~1,400 MW
  • Build rate: ~150-333 MW/yr vs ~800 MW/yr required
  • Planning: near 1:1 approval-to-refusal ratio at ABP in 2024 C1
  • Legacy fleet: 854 MW faces planning expiry by 2030 C2
  • Curtailment: 14% dispatch-down in 2024 (record), 11.3% in 2025
  • Cornwall Insight: 9 GW may not be met until 2044 at current pace C3
  • RESS 5: 219 MW wind at EUR 96.56/MWh (11.2% price increase vs RESS 4)

Offshore Wind

Critical
Operational
0 GW
Target 2030
5.0 GW
Realistic 2030
0-0.8 GW
ORESS 1 awarded
~3.1 GW
ORESS 2.1
~900 MW
Consented
0 projects

Phase 1 Projects (all still in planning):

  • Arklow Bank Ph2 (800 MW, SSE) -- 2029+ if construction starts 2026
  • Codling Bank (1,300 MW, EDF/Fred Olsen) -- 2030-2032
  • Dublin Array (~600 MW, RWE) -- 2031+
  • NISA (~500 MW, Statkraft) -- 2032+
  • Oriel (375 MW, Parkwind/ESB) -- 2028-2030 (most optimistic)
  • No project has received planning consent C1
  • International precedent: 5-8.7 years consent-to-operation
  • No construction/marshalling port infrastructure in Ireland C2
  • MARA still establishing processes
  • 5 GW by 2030 is universally agreed as unachievable C1

Solar PV

Brightest spot
Installed
2.2 GW
Target 2030
8.0 GW
Realistic 2030
5-7 GW
Utility-scale
885 MW
Rooftop
1+ GW
RESS awarded
~4.65 GW
  • Growth: near-zero in 2019 to 2.2 GW by end 2025 -- fastest-growing tech C1
  • Rooftop solar crossed 1 GW (155,000+ homes, ~14% of suitable rooftops)
  • Record solar day: 21.1% of national demand (18 May 2025) C1
  • Grid connection remains multi-year (ECP batch system) C1
  • RESS prices trending upward: EUR 100-105/MWh C1
  • SEAI: "no scenario" for 8 GW under current policies C1

Gas & Conventional

Essential but risky
Dispatchable fleet
~6,920 MW
New flex target
2.0 GW
Committed new
1,079 MW

New Flexible Gas Pipeline:

  • Castlelost: 275 MW OCGT (VPI/Lumcloon) -- 2025 C1
  • Tarbert Next Gen: 300 MW OCGT, 100% HVO (SSE) -- end 2027
  • Platin: 170 MW OCGT (SSE) -- 2028
  • Bord Gais Galway: 334 MW OCGT (Centrica) -- 2029
  • Shannon LNG: 600 MW CCGT + 120 MW BESS -- under judicial review C2
  • Gap to target: 320-920 MW depending on Shannon LNG
  • Corrib gas field: -15.6% year-on-year decline; exhaustion ~2026-2027 C1
  • Ireland will import 90%+ of gas by 2026 via two subsea pipelines (single-route vulnerability)
  • Coal: Moneypoint ended coal June 2025; HFO standby until March 2029
  • Carbon adds ~EUR 48/MWh to gas at 2030 ETS prices (EUR 126-149/t) C2

Interconnectors

On track
Operational
1,500 MW
Post-Celtic
2,200 MW
Net imports (2025)
14.6 %

Operational Lines:

  • Moyle: 500 MW (Scotland-NI, 2001)
  • EWIC: 500 MW (Ireland-Wales, 2012)
  • Greenlink: 500 MW (Wexford-Wales, Apr 2025) C1

Under Construction:

  • Celtic Interconnector: 700 MW (Cork-Brittany) -- spring 2028 C1
  • Construction 60%+ complete; delayed from 2026-2027
  • Will import cheap French nuclear (EUR 40-50/MWh spread)
  • 700 MW = ~10-14% of peak demand

Ireland is a growing net importer: 11.7% (2024) rising to 14.6% (2025). Reflects demand growth outpacing domestic generation.

Battery Storage (BESS)

Stalled
Operational
~1,050 MW
Under construction
83 MW
Pipeline
~10 GW
Planning granted
~4 GW
2030 forecast
4.7-5 GW
Projects in pipeline
155
  • Execution gap is extreme: 10 GW pipeline but only 83 MW construction C1
  • DS3-to-FASS revenue gap (Jan-May 2027) is freezing investment decisions
  • Revenue stacking confirmed by CRU: 12-37% higher revenue under new framework C1
  • Duration shift: market moving from 30min-1hr to 4-8 hours
  • FuturEnergy iron-air: 10 MW / 1 GWh (100-hour), first in Europe C2
  • EirGrid targeting 201 MW minimum of 4hr+ LDES by 2030
  • Realistic 2030: 2.5-4 GW (depends entirely on DASSA timing) C3
03 Supply Timeline: Projected GW by Technology 2025 actual through 2034 indicative
C1 -- 2025 actual C3 -- 2027/2030 realistic estimates C4 -- 2034 indicative extrapolation

Stacked area shows realistic capacity trajectory. The 2030 targets for onshore wind (9 GW), offshore wind (5 GW), and solar (8 GW) are shown as markers at the right edge. Note the near-zero offshore wind contribution through 2030 -- the biggest single driver of the RES-E shortfall.

Implied RES-E Share Trajectory

EPA's projection of 68% RES-E by 2030 (vs 80% target) appears the most credible central estimate. The range of 55-68% reflects offshore wind uncertainty -- if no offshore wind arrives, the lower bound applies. The 80% target requires everything to go right including unprecedented SNSP of 95%.

04 Where Forecasters Disagree Key divergences between SEAI, Wood Mackenzie, Cornwall Insight, and others

Key Disagreements

Topic View A (Pessimistic) View B (Optimistic) Assessment
Solar 2030 SEAI: 5-6.5 GW
Grid bottlenecks dominate		 Wood Mackenzie: ~8 GW
Policy momentum + co-location		 5-7 GW likely. Both could be right depending on PR6 delivery. C3
Offshore 2030 Author/WEI: 0 MW
Planning reality		 Wood Mackenzie: 824 MW
Assumes one project through		 0-800 MW. WoodMac requires everything to go perfectly for Arklow Bank Ph2. C3
BESS 2030 Cornwall: 5 GW / 13.5 GWh Wood Mackenzie: 4.7 GW Broadly aligned at 4.5-5 GW if DASSA on time. Could be 2-3 GW if gap persists. C3
Offshore target Most sources: "at least 5 GW" A&L Goodbody: "at least 8 GW" 5 GW is the formal CAP target. 8 GW likely conflates pipeline with target. C2
Grid at 80% RES-E? Industry: 95% SNSP is unprecedented; milestones "tentative" EirGrid roadmap: yes, with SNSP 95% Technically possible but high execution risk. No system globally at 95% SNSP. C3

Why Forecasters Disagree

The primary axis of disagreement is whether systemic bottlenecks (planning, grid connections, revenue certainty) will be resolved in time.

Pessimists (SEAI, Cornwall)

Assume current delivery rates persist. Historical evidence favours this view -- Ireland has consistently underdelivered against energy targets.

Optimists (Wood Mackenzie)

Assume policy reforms unlock deployment. The scale of PR6 investment (EUR 14-19bn) and EU penalty pressure is genuinely unprecedented.

Areas of Universal Agreement C1

80% RES-E by 2030 will be missed
EirGrid, SEAI, EPA, WEI, Cornwall Insight, Wood Mackenzie all agree
5 GW offshore by 2030 impossible
All industry and analyst sources
Planning system is a binding constraint
WEI, Cornwall Insight, Irish Times, EirGrid
DS3-FASS gap freezing BESS investment
Cornwall Insight, ESS News, Fluence, GridBeyond
Corrib gas exhaustion ~2026-2027
Gas Networks Ireland, CSO, -15.6% annual decline confirmed
EUR 14-19bn grid investment needed
CRU, EirGrid, ESB Networks
05 Policy Decision Dependencies The leverage points that determine Ireland's trajectory

Near-Term: 2026 C1

Feb 2026
Shannon LNG Judicial Review
Determines whether 600 MW + 120 MW BESS proceed. Swing factor for the 2 GW flexible gas target.
Feb 2026
RED III Renewables Acceleration Areas
EU requires designation by Feb 2026. Fast-tracked permitting within these areas. Ireland has not described plans for designation.
2026
ABP/An Coimisiun Pleanala Throughput
At 717 MW approved/yr (2024), onshore wind cannot reach 9 GW. Needs to roughly triple. Structural reform required.
2026
First Offshore Wind Planning Consent
Sets the clock on 5-7 year construction timelines. Each year of delay pushes first power by a year. Zero consents issued as of Feb 2026.
End 2026
DS3 Expiry / DASSA Launch Clarity
Unlocks or freezes ~10 GW BESS pipeline. If DASSA slips past May 2027, BESS construction remains minimal. The #1 BESS constraint.

Medium-Term: 2027-2028 C2

May 2027
DASSA Competitive Procurement Launch
New BESS revenue framework. Revenue stacking (DS3/DASSA + wholesale + CRM) confirmed by CRU. GridBeyond models 12-37% revenue uplift.
2027-2028
LCIS Synchronous Condensers Delivery
6 facilities providing 6,963 MVA.s of inertia. Enables minimum conventional generation reductions.
Spring 2028
Celtic Interconnector Commissioning
700 MW France-Ireland capacity. Compresses wholesale spreads, improves security of supply. Construction 60%+ complete.
2027-2028
SNSP Progression Beyond 75%
Each 5pp increase unlocks more renewable generation. Path to 95% by 2030 is the target. Next milestones described as "tentative."

Longer-Term: 2029-2030+ C3

Late 2020s
State FSRU / LNG Operational
Addresses gas supply vulnerability after Corrib exhaustion. Approved March 2025; legislation pending.
Oct 2031
North-South Interconnector
400kV ROI-NI link. Delayed from 2028. 80% of landowners reportedly refusing access. Critical for NI constraint relief (21.7% dispatch-down).
2030+
Offshore Grid Infrastructure
Not yet fully scoped within PR6. Required for 5+ GW offshore wind. EirGrid progressing Powering Up Offshore South Coast.
Ongoing
Capacity Market Reform
Current CRM underdelivering: 606 MW new de-rated capacity in 2028/29 T-4. System needs ~1,500 MW more. EirGrid has flagged the deficiency.
06 Grid Infrastructure Can the grid handle planned supply additions?
EUR 14-19bn
PR6 investment programme (2026-2030)
Largest infrastructure programme in Irish electricity history. EUR 1.5bn government equity injection to ESB.
500+
Major capital projects in PR6
29 priority transmission projects, 27 new + 16 upgraded 110kV substations, 4.4 GW distributed generation capacity
75%
Current SNSP limit
Must reach 95% by 2030 -- unprecedented globally. Next milestones "tentative."
50%
Potential curtailment by 2030
If grid upgrades lag. Currently 11.3% wind dispatch-down (ROI, 2025). 14% in 2024 was worst on record.

Key Grid Bottlenecks

Bottleneck Current State Resolution Path
West/NW Transmission Highest constraint area; wind exceeds export capacity to eastern demand centres PR5/PR6 reinforcements underway but constraints persist C1
Dublin Demand Data centre moratorium (Jan 2022); Powering Up Dublin project 50km underground HV cables, new substations; 2026-2028 C1
SNSP 75% Ceiling Currently limits instantaneous non-synchronous generation to 75% Synchronous condensers, grid-forming inverters, BESS C2
Curtailment 11.3% wind dispatch-down (ROI, 2025); 905 GWh curtailed with no compensation Grid reinforcements + SNSP increases + storage + interconnectors C2
Offshore Grid Not yet scoped within PR6 Powering Up Offshore South Coast progressing C2
North-South IC Delayed to Oct 2031. NI dispatch-down at 21.7% vs 11.3% ROI CPO processes ongoing; 80% landowner refusal reported C2
Historic delivery risk: PR5 (2021-2025) saw an underspend of EUR 157 million against the EUR 3.87bn ESB Networks allowance, due to supply chain constraints, planning delays, and resource availability. Whether the system can spend EUR 14-19bn in the next five years -- roughly 4x the PR5 rate -- is a legitimate question. C3

Grid Performance Snapshot (2025) C1

38.4%
Renewable share of demand
32.7%
Wind share
2.8%
Solar share
42.8%
Gas share
Can spike to ~90% during wind droughts
14.6%
Net imports
7,497 MW
Peak demand (8 Jan 2025)
4,668 MW
Peak wind output (13 Dec 2025)
60
Negative price hours in 2025
07 BESS Arbitrage Implications How supply trends affect battery storage economics

Supply-Side Drivers of BESS Profitability

Factors above the line increase arbitrage revenue; factors below compress it. The net effect is positive for 2026-2028 but increasingly uncertain for 2029+.

The Central Tension

Spread Creation

Rising renewable penetration creates more low/negative price periods. Gas at rising carbon costs (EUR 85-150/t by 2030) sets high prices during low-RE periods. This widens daily spreads.

Spread Compression

Celtic Interconnector (700 MW cheap French power), growing BESS fleet (self-cannibalisation at 3-5 GW), and SNSP improvements all compress spreads.

→ 2026-2028 window favours BESS arbitrage: Renewables growing, curtailment rising (905 GWh in 2025, no compensation), Celtic not yet online, BESS capacity still low (~1 GW). SDP market access (Nov 2025) opens day-ahead, intra-day, and balancing markets. C3
→ 2029-2030+ more uncertain: Celtic online, BESS fleet may reach 3-5 GW (saturation effects), DASSA competitive procurement may compress ancillary margins. However, rising carbon costs and potential offshore wind arrivals could create new volatility. C4
Positive for BESS

Growing Curtailment

905 GWh curtailed in 2025 with no compensation. Creates cheap energy BESS can buy and sell later. 60 negative-price hours in 2025 and rising.

Positive for BESS

Revenue Stacking Confirmed

CRU confirmed BESS can earn from DS3/DASSA + wholesale + CRM simultaneously. GridBeyond models 12-37% revenue uplift vs DS3-only.

Risk for BESS

DS3-to-DASSA Transition Risk

DS3 extended to earlier of DASSA go-live or 30 September 2027 longstop (per SEM-25-031). DASSA targeted May 2027. While formal "gap" is bridged, competitive DASSA pricing expected materially lower than DS3 regulated tariffs. This revenue uncertainty is why only 83 MW is under construction despite 10 GW pipeline.

Risk for BESS

Saturation & Celtic Compression

DS3 already saturated at ~1 GW. Short-duration arbitrage saturates at 2-3 GW. Celtic imports EUR 40-50/MWh cheaper French power, dampening peak events.

Opportunity

SDP Market Access

Since Nov 2025, BESS can participate in day-ahead, intra-day, and balancing markets for the first time. Opens new wholesale revenue streams.

Structural Shift

Duration Lengthening

Market moving from 30min-1hr to 4-8 hours. ~50% of new BESS applications are co-located with solar. Short-duration assets face declining advantage over time.

08 Confidence Ratings C1-C5 scale applied to key claims

Confidence Scale

C1 Established fact. Multiple independent sources. Very high confidence.
C2 Strong evidence from credible sources. Minor uncertainty.
C3 Reasonable inference. Author synthesis/extrapolation. Moderate confidence.
C4 Speculative but grounded. Limited direct evidence.
C5 Highly speculative. Included for completeness only.

Key Claims & Ratings

# Claim Rating Basis
1 Ireland will miss 80% RES-E by 2030 C1 EPA, EirGrid, SEAI, WEI, all analysts agree. No credible source projects 80%.
2 Onshore wind reaches 6-7 GW (not 9 GW) C2 Build rate data is C1; extrapolation involves planning reform assumptions.
3 Offshore wind delivers 0-800 MW by 2030 C2 Zero operational capacity is C1. Range depends on whether any project achieves consent + construction in 4 years.
4 Solar reaches 5-7 GW by 2030 C3 SEAI and WoodMac disagree by ~2 GW. Depends on grid connection and RESS delivery rates.
5 New flexible gas reaches 1.1-1.7 GW C2 Committed projects have FIDs. Shannon LNG judicial review adds uncertainty.
6 Celtic IC operational spring 2028 C1 Construction 60%+. Could slip modestly but unlikely more than months.
7 BESS fleet reaches 2.5-4 GW by 2030 C3 10 GW pipeline is real but 83 MW construction is also real. Outcome depends on DASSA timing.
8 Curtailment could reach 50% by 2030 C2 EirGrid/IIEA scenario analysis. Conditional on grid upgrades + SNSP increases.
9 EU ESR costs EUR 8-28bn C2 IFAC/CCAC methodology is sound. Wide range depends on allocation market dynamics.
10 Corrib gas exhaustion ~2026-2027 C1 CSO production data, Gas Networks Ireland outlook, -15.6% annual decline confirmed.
11 SNSP 95% achievable by 2030 C3 Unprecedented globally. Requires synchronous condensers, grid-forming inverters, BESS all delivering.
12 PR6 EUR 14-19bn can be delivered in 5 years C3 Allocated by CRU. But PR5 underspent, PR6 is ~4x the annual rate. Labour/supply chain constraints real.
13 BESS arbitrage remains profitable 2026-2028 C3 Based on rising renewables + curtailment + limited fleet + gas-set prices. No published forward modelling.
14 BESS arbitrage faces compression 2029+ C3 Celtic online, fleet growth, DASSA competition. Directionally clear but magnitude uncertain.
15 Realistic RES-E by 2030 is 55-68% C3 Synthesis of EPA 68% central with downside risks from offshore and grid delivery.

Data Sources

This synthesis was compiled on 2026-02-15 from 8 research files (s01-s08) drawing on official government publications (CAP 2021-2025, NECP, CRU determinations), state agency data (EirGrid, SEAI, EPA, ESB Networks), industry bodies (WEI, Solar Ireland), analyst forecasts (Cornwall Insight, Wood Mackenzie), and legal/media analysis. Projections labelled "realistic" are author estimates based on current build rates and announced projects. The C1-C5 confidence scale is applied throughout. All EUR figures are nominal. Policy may have evolved since the most recent source dates (late 2025/early 2026).