Ireland Electricity System

Supply Growth vs Demand Growth

Is generation capacity keeping pace with rising demand from data centres, EVs, and heat pumps? Where are the bottlenecks, and what does it mean for BESS economics?

Supply falling short of 2030 targets
Total capacity (2025)
14.9 GW
Peak demand (2024/25)
6.2 GW
2030 capacity gap
-8.6 GW vs target
Offshore wind
26% of target
01 Supply vs Demand Capacity Over Time 2020 -- 2030, all-island installed capacity
2020-2024: Actual data 2025-2027: Near-term estimates 2028-2030: Projections based on current build rates

The 2030 CAP target (33.2 GW) is shown as hollow markers on the right axis. At current build rates, the system reaches ~24.6 GW by 2030 -- a gap of 8.6 GW. Total capacity well exceeds peak demand, but much of it is intermittent (wind/solar), so the reserve margin line shows what firm/dispatchable capacity must cover.

02 The Gap: 2030 Target vs Realistic Expectation Climate Action Plan targets vs current trajectory

Bars show current capacity (2025), realistic 2030 projection at current build rates, and the government's Climate Action Plan target. Only solar is on a trajectory approaching its target.

Detailed Breakdown

Technology Now (2025) Realistic 2030 Target 2030 Gap Status
Onshore Wind 5.0 GW 6.5 GW 9.0 GW -2.5 GW Behind
Offshore Wind 0.025 GW 1.3 GW 5.0 GW -3.7 GW Far behind
Solar PV 2.0 GW 6.5 GW 8.0 GW -1.5 GW On track-ish
BESS (discharge) 1.05 GW 3.0 GW 5.0 GW -2.0 GW Stalled
Data Centre Demand 9.4 TWh ~13 TWh -- -- On track
EV Fleet 196k 400-500k 1M -500k+ 35% behind pace

"On track-ish" for solar reflects very fast recent growth (160% in 2 years) but the target is still ambitious. "Stalled" for BESS reflects a large pipeline on paper (10 GW) but only 83 MW under construction.

03 The Planning Permission Bottleneck The binding constraint on Irish renewables
42%
Of needed annual wind approvals granted in 2024
717 MW approved vs ~1,700 MW/year needed to reach 2030 target
~13%
Wind approval rate in Q2 2025 (annualised)
Trending sharply downward from the already insufficient 2024 rate
31
Wind projects awaiting An Bord Pleanala decisions
Totalling 1,643 MW -- stuck in the appeals/review backlog
63%
Rise in BESS planning applications in 2025
12-13% refusal rate (low), but pipeline-to-construction conversion is poor

Why Planning Matters More Than Finance or Technology

Ireland's renewables shortfall is not caused by lack of investment appetite, technology cost, or grid capacity (though those are secondary constraints). The primary bottleneck is the planning system:

Until the planning system throughput increases significantly, announced pipelines (10 GW BESS, 7+ GW offshore wind) will remain largely on paper.

04 What This Means for Battery Arbitrage Connecting supply/demand dynamics to BESS profitability

Supply-Demand Dynamics and Battery Economics

→ Supply falls short of targets (likely): More gas generation needed to fill the gap, which means higher marginal prices during peak hours, wider daily spreads, and more revenue opportunity for batteries doing energy arbitrage.
→ Demand grows as forecast (data centres + EVs): Peak demand increases from 6.2 GW toward 7.2 GW by 2030, creating more frequent scarcity events and system stress. DS3 system services payments increase. Good for batteries.
→ Renewables overbuild in off-peak: Even with shortfalls vs targets, wind+solar will increase significantly. This means more near-zero and negative price periods (good for charging) alongside high-price peak periods (good for discharging). Wider spreads = better arbitrage.
← Counterforce -- BESS cannibalisation: Each GW of BESS deployed compresses the very spreads it profits from. If 3 GW is deployed by 2030 (realistic estimate), the most lucrative arbitrage windows shrink. At 5 GW (target), spread compression could be significant.
Net assessment: The supply shortfall + demand growth combination is structurally positive for battery economics in the medium term (2025-2030). The system needs flexibility that batteries provide. However, the magnitude of the opportunity is uncertain: it depends on which shortfalls materialise, how fast BESS actually deploys (currently stalled), and whether market design evolves to properly remunerate flexibility. First-mover advantage is real but time-limited.
Trending Down

Wind Planning Approvals

717 MW approved in 2024 (full year), far less in Q2 2025 (annualised ~220 MW). Planning approval rate is falling, not rising, at exactly the wrong time. The pipeline is large but stuck.

Trending Up

Solar Deployment

160% growth in installed capacity over 2 years. 1.2 GW added in 2024 alone. Faster permitting (ground-mount solar is less contentious), smaller project sizes, and strong economics are driving rapid uptake.

Stalled

BESS Construction

10 GW pipeline on paper but only 83 MW under construction. Large gap between announced/permitted and actually being built. Grid connection timelines and capacity auction uncertainty are the main causes.

Accelerating

Electricity Demand

Record peak of 6,024 MW set January 2025. Data centre moratorium lifted; new connections proceeding. EV fleet growing (slowly). Heat pump adoption increasing. Demand growth accelerating after a decade of relative stability.

Data Sources

Projections are estimates based on current build rates and announced projects. Actual outcomes will differ. The "realistic 2030" projections assume continuation of current trends with no major policy acceleration or deceleration. The 2030 CAP targets are the government's stated ambitions under the Climate Action Plan and assume significantly faster deployment than is currently occurring.